This week is an important time of year in my personal racing calendar as it hosts my two favourite Summer racing festivals at Galway on the west coast of Ireland and Goodwood, which is situated high up on the South Downs.
With Galway scheduled for 7 days commencing on Monday evening and Goodwood starting on Tuesday and continuing until Saturday, this will be a very busy time for racing enthusiasts and I have therefore decided to publish this week’s edition of Rob’s Ramblings in 2 parts.
Part 1 will provide some general information on and preview the key early races for the two festivals, whilst part 2 will cover the the later races from Galway and Goodwood, plus the usual review of last week’s action, etc.
With Galway scheduled for 7 days commencing on Monday evening and Goodwood starting on Tuesday and continuing until Saturday, this will be a very busy time for racing enthusiasts and I have therefore decided to publish this week’s edition of Rob’s Ramblings in 2 parts.
Part 1 will provide some general information on and preview the key early races for the two festivals, whilst part 2 will cover the the later races from Galway and Goodwood, plus the usual review of last week’s action, etc.
Drawing Conclusions
Both Galway and Goodwood racecourses have a similar characteristic as they are right handed tracks, which require races over 7 furlongs and 1 mile (around 8 ½ furlongs in the case of Galway) to be run around a right hand bend.
In the case of Goodwood, the bend provides a turn of around 90 degrees, whereas at Galway the participants have to negotiate a turn that is in excess of 180 degrees, which in both cases suggests that there should be a significant advantage for runners that are drawn close to the inside running rail (emerging from low numbered stalls).
In an attempt to quantify the impact of the draw over these race distances at each track, I have undertaken some analysis in respect of the winners of the handicap races during past festivals.
For ease of reference, I have split the field for each race into 3 sets based on the draw, namely low, middle and high.
Galway
The results of the draw analysis at Galway were somewhat interesting for race over both 7 furlongs and 8 ½ furlongs, as detailed below:
7 Furlongs
Low – 8 winners
Medium – 3 winners
High – 9 winners
8 ½ Furlongs
Low – 6 winners
Medium – 6 winners
High – 10 winners
Bearing in mind that low drawn runners should have an edge over those rivals emerging from high numbered stalls as they should find it easier to achieve a good position close to the inner running rail, the fact that the participants berthed in the highest numbered stalls achieved a better strike rate over both distances was a surprise.
I therefore felt the need to delve deeper to ascertain the reason for this apparent anomaly, so I also analysed the running styles of the winners of these races, which I split into 4 broad headings, namely, early leaders, prominent racers, mid division and held up.
The results of this further analysis for each race distance is as follows:
7 Furlongs
Led – 3
Prominent – 10
Mid Division – 3
Held Up – 4
8 ½ Furlongs
Led – 5
Prominent – 1
Mid Division – 12
Held Up 4
There appears to be 2 distinct patterns emerging, as the majority of winners over 7 furlongs were either early leaders, or prominent racers, whereas over the longer trip the preferred racing style is for horses to be held up either in midfield, or at the rear of the field.
It is difficult to be certain why these distinct patterns occur, but I do have one theory which is that the track is a stiff test due to the undulations and relatively stiff uphill finish (approximately 2 furlongs), which suggests that horses that normally have sufficient stamina to race prominently over 1 mile are comfortable with the drop back to 7 furlongs at Galway, but struggle to cope with both the stiff nature of the track and extended yardage when attempting the longer race distance, especially as the ground is often on the slow side.
Putting both sets of data together for each of the race distances, I have arrived at the following conclusions:
7 Furlongs
Early leaders and prominent racers can win irrespective of their starting stall position, providing they have sufficient early pace to achieve a good racing position before the end of the back straight.
Runners that need to be held up towards the rear of the field are suited by a high draw, which allows then to achieve their ideal position without getting involved in the scrummaging which occurs amongst the lower drawn runners who are jostling for position.
8 ½ Furlongs
Races over this distance can be won from the front, if the horse has a high draw (counter intuitive) and has sufficient early pace to cut across the field to secure a position on the inside rail, as these runners are not impacted by the scrummaging that occurs amongst the lower drawn participants.
However, it generally pays to focus on horses that tend to race in mid division, or at the rear of the field, in which case the draw has little impact on their chance of victory.
Goodwood
I have used the same methodology for assessing the impact of the draw at Goodwood over 7 furlongs and 1 mile.
7 Furlongs
Low – 9
Middle – 12
High – 6
8 Furlongs
Low – 7
Middle – 3
High – 3
Although the results for 8 furlongs are in line with my expectations, as logic suggests that low drawn runners should have an edge when running around a bend, the figures for the races over 7 furlongs were surprising as it appears that a middle draw is the best starting position.
I therefore felt that I had to reassess these results using slightly modified criteria, so I split the winners into just 2 sets, as follows:
7 Furlongs
Low – 16
High – 11
8 Furlongs
Low – 10
High – 3
The latest figures at least suggest that a stall position in the bottom half of the draw is beneficial, albeit the advantage is only moderate when looking at races over 7 furlongs.
I then analysed the running styles of the winners over both distances, as follows:
7 Furlongs
Led – 4
Prominent – 6
Mid Division – 9
Held Up – 6
8 Furlongs
Led – 2
Prominent – 3
Mid Division – 5
Held Up – 3
On the basis that Goodwood has the highest figure for horses suffering some form of interference during a race at around 33%, it again surprised me that the majority of winners over both distances either travelled in mid division, or were held up towards the rear of the field.
However, when amalgamating the low/high draw data with the racing style information the conclusions that can be drawn for both race distances, are fairly robust and complementary:
Horses that prefer to either lead early, or race prominently need to emerge from a stall in the lower half of the draw.
Horses that tend to race in mid division can win over either race distance from any stall, albeit their strike rate is slightly better from a low draw.
Horses that prefer to be held up at the rear of the field, need a high draw to have a reasonable chance of success.
I hope that the above analysis assists readers when assessing races over these distances during the week.
In addition, here is a link to a recent article in the Racing Post, which provides some useful information for punters in respect of the Galway Festival.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/mark-boylan-s-dos-and-don-ts-for-betting-at-the-galway-festival/391563
There is also a similar article providing some sound advice for punters intending to bet in races at Goodwood.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/graeme-rodways-dos-and-donts-for-betting-at-glorious-goodwood/391511
Racing Post Postdata Service
Perhaps I am becoming too demanding as I grow older, but I am frustrated by the lack of updates for this service when the official going is changed for a race meeting.
A good example occurred last Saturday, where the going at Ascot changed overnight from G/F to G/S, yet the Postdata information continued to show the analysis based on the faster underfoot conditions, although they did eventually update the going at the head of the table to G/S.
This meant that anyone viewing the table for the first time and/or not comparing the ticks in the boxes for suitability of the underfoot conditions against the past performances for the runners would have been completely mislead!!
Take the example of DOCUMENTING in the 3.00 race at Ascot, who was given one tick in the Going column when the ground was described as G/F, which is reasonable based on him recording his career best turf RPR of 91 on fast ground. However, he was still awarded the same tick for an RPR of just 70 on his only attempt on G/S in a race where he finished thirteenth (btn 8 ¼ lengths), of the 14 runners – this cannot be correct!!
In the same race, ANOTHER BATT was correctly awarded a question mark as he had never raced on G/F, but this remained in place when the going was changed to G/S, despite the fact that he had winning form on the slower surface!!
As many readers will be aware, Postdata information is key for my VALUE CALCULATOR analysis, on which I rely heavily when determining whether to bet, or not, so lack of updates completely compromises my ability to accurately assess value at the race meeting.
I fully appreciate that it is impossible for the Postdata information to be updated in the physical newspaper and it would be expecting too much for late changes in the going to be covered on line, but when the official going is changed overnight then surely the staff at the Racing Post, should be able to make the necessary amendments by mid morning to give users the most up to date position on which they can base their analysis of a race?
Access to Postdata is only available to users of the Racing Post who subscribe to the Members Club, so it is not as if we are not making a financial contribution towards the running of this service.
In the unlikely event that anyone reading this article is associated with the running of the Racing Post, I would request that they raise this matter with the management team, as surely the key goal of this media ‘giant’ is to provide subscribers with the most accurate data, where possible.
Niche Horse Tracker Update
The main weekly update will appear in Part 2, but here are the NHT qualifiers for races from Monday to Thursday, that are not included in the main preview, below:
Monday, 29 July
7.50 Windsor – ICE AGE – both the track and trip (6 furlongs) should be ideal for him and he is nicely treated off an OR of 97 based on his best performances of last year. However, his efforts this season have been rather hit or miss and the booking of the relatively inexperienced apprentice jockey, Georgia Dobie, who can claim 7 lbs is interesting. I have no strong opinions either way and my final decision as to whether to back him, will very much depend on whether he passes the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis.
Wednesday, 31 July
1.50 Goodwood – THE GRAND VISIR – is likely to relish every yard of this marathon 2 miles and 4 ½ furlongs race, but has shown all of his best form on a slow surface, so will probably need some cut in the ground.
Galway and Goodwood Preview (Tuesday to Thursday)
Tuesday, 30 July
3.00 Goodwood - Lennox Stakes (Group 2) for 3yos and older over 7 furlongs
In the absence of a Group 1 race in the UK over this specialist distance, this event is one of the most prestigious for horses over 7 furlongs, with the winner normally having to record an RPR in excess of 116.
This appears to be a fairly open renewal, for which I have chosen the following shortlist:
DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT – NHT representative who only enters calculations if the heavens open and the ground is described as Soft, or slower, as he has to find improvement from somewhere to be competitive in this event, especially as has shown his best form later in the season. However, he could sneak a place at huge odds, if underfoot conditions are in his favour, as they will not suit some of his rivals.
FLAMING SPEAR – at first glance he appears to be an unlikely candidate, as he has never won above Class 2 handicap level and will be making his seasonal debut. However, he recorded his career best RPR of 116 over this course and distance last August, when beating no other than CAPE BYRON.
HEY GAMAN – finished runner up last time out in the Group 2, Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh and has claims based on his career best RPR of 116. However, he has yet to win in 7 attempts above Group 3 level and is likely to need to improve again to win this event.
SIR DANCEALOT – won this race last year, together with the Group 2, Hungerford Stakes at Newbury, but subsequently could only finish fifth (btn 2 ¼ lengths) behind ONE MASTER in the Group 1, Prix de la Foret at Longchamp in October. He has yet to hit form this season, but a return to his best should see him go close.
ZAAKI – is a typical Sir Michael Stoute trained 4yo, who has improved this season with 3 strong performances over 1 mile and only just failed when runner up (btn a nose) by the ill fated BEAT THE BANK in the Group 2, Summer Mile at Ascot, last time. However, his best form is over further, so this step back in trip may not be ideal.
SPACE TRAVELLER – is the only 3yo in the shortlist, but has solid claims based on a vastly improved performance last time, when winning the Group 3, Jersey Stakes over 7 furlongs at Royal Ascot. He improved his best RPR by 11 lbs on that occasion, but will probably need to better that figure by a few lbs to win this race.
3.35 Goodwood - Goodwood Cup (Group 1) for 3yos and older over 2 miles
Although this race was only promoted from Group 2 to the highest level in 2017, it has always been one of the most prestigious events for stayers which normally requires the winner to record an RPR of 115, or greater, although STRADIVARIUS appears to have raised the bar with figures of 118 and 121, since it became a Group 1 race.
Based on historic form, there are just 3 shortlisted candidates.
CROSS COUNTER – recorded a career best RPR of 119 when victorious in the Group 3, Gordon Stakes over 12 furlongs at this meeting last year, finishing 4 ½ lengths ahead of DEE EX BEE and subsequently went on to win both the Melbourne Cup and Group 2, Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan. He was returning from a fairly lengthy break, when finishing fourth (btn 1 ¾ lengths) in the Gold Cup and Royal Ascot and may be capable of further improvement on the likely faster ground, as he was staying on well, albeit he had too much to make up on the leaders.
DEE EX BEE – has improved for the step up in distance to staying trips this season and recorded a joint career best RPR of 119 when finishing runner up (btn 1 length) in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.
He will almost certainly attempt to lead from the early stages in this race, so connections will be keen for him to set a searching gallop over this shorter trip on the likely faster ground, as he was easily outgunned by the winner in the closing stages that day.
STRADIVARIUS – has won the last 2 renewals of this race and was victorious in his second consecutive Ascot Gold Cup last time, where he comfortably beat his 2 main rivals for this event.
The likely faster ground should improve his chance of winning and although his career best RPR of 121 only gives him 2 lbs in hand of CROSS COUNTER and DEE EX BEE, he often gives the impression that he would be capable of recording a bigger figure, if pressed to do so.
Wednesday, 31 July
3.35 Goodwood - Sussex Stakes (Group 1) for 3yos and older over 1 mile
During the period 2009 to 2013, this race was considered to be the Premier event for milers, as it required the winner to record an RPR at least 129, however those halcyon days appear to be long gone, as the last 5 renewals have produced Winning RPRs between 118 and 124 with the average figure being 122.
In view of the lack of strength in depth amongst the milers this year, I doubt that the winner will need to record a figure in excess of 124.
Although there are only 9 entries at the 5 day stage, it is not easy to be confident regarding the chances of any of the 4 shortlist qualifiers:
LORD GLITTERS – finally got off the mark at the highest level last time out when winning the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, in which he recorded a career best RPR of 121. However, that was a substandard renewal of the event and he could only finish third in this race last season, against what were probably weaker rivals than he faces this time.
ZABEEL PRINCE – lightly raced 6yo who has won half of his 12 career starts, including the Group 1, Prix d’Ispahan over 9 furlongs at Longchamp in May. He has subsequently disappointed in two Group 1 events over 10 furlongs and is likely to appreciate the drop in trip to 1 mile, although his career best RPR of 120, suggests that he will probably need to find some improvement to win this race.
PHOENIX OF SPAIN – has solid claims based on his career best RPR of 120 which he earned when winning the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh on his seasonal debut, where he finished 3 lengths clear of TOO DARN HOT. However, he was allowed an uncontested lead that day on a track that favours front runners and was unable to confirm the form in his subsequent start at Royal Ascot, when finishing sixth (btn 3 ¾ lengths) behind CIRCUS MAXIMUS.
TOO DARN HOT – sets the standard for his rivals based on his career best RPR of 125, which he has achieved twice over 7 furlongs, including last time out in the Group 1, Prix Jean Pratt at Deauville. However, he has finished behind both PHOENIX OF SPAIN (Irish 2000 Guineas) and CIRCUS MAXIMUS (St James’s Palace Stakes) in his 2 starts over 1 mile and the suspicion is that he is more of a speed horse than a stayer. That said, the easy mile at Goodwood, probably provides him with his best opportunity to notch a Group 1 victory at this distance, especially if the underfoot conditions are quick.
7.20 Galway - Galway Plate (Grade A Handicap Chase) over 2 miles and 6 ½ furlongs
This is one of the most competitive handicap chases held in Ireland, in which the winner normally records an Adjusted RPR of at least 169 and it is rare for the winner not to have already recorded a top 3 finish in a Graded weight for age race over fences.
I will deploy the following trends to whittle down the current entries to produce a more manageable shortlist:
Recorded an RPR at least 5 lbs higher than OR for race within last 5 starts over fences: 9/10
Previously won in a Chase over 2m3f to 2m6f: 9/10
Recorded a pre race Adjusted RPR (based on last 5 starts) of at least 161: 8/10
I will share the final shortlist in the comments section below during Tuesday afternoon, after the final declarations have been published.
Readers who wish to consider an alternative approach for this race may find the following Racing Post article of interest.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/brian-sheerin-on-how-to-pick-the-winner-of-the-galway-plate/391955
Thursday, 1 August
3.35 Goodwood - Nassau Stakes (Group 1) for 3yo and older Fillies and mares over 1 mile and 2 furlongs
Another Group 1 race where the level of performance required by the winner has reduced in recent years, with an RPR of 116 has been good enough to win 4 of the last 6 renewals.
It is also worth noting that 6 of the last 7 winners were members of the classic generation.
In light of the recent near domination of 3yo fillies in this race, it is no real surprise that my shortlist of 5 candidates contains just a single older protagonist.
RAWDAA – is the sole older filly to make the shortlist and has yet to win in Pattern company. However, she has only been beaten by just a neck in both of her latest starts in Group 2 events at York and Royal Ascot. This will only be her seventh start on turf, so there is every chance she may be able to produce further improvement, whilst her career best RPR of 116 may be good enough for victory.
CHANNEL – has only raced 4 times to date, winning her last 3 starts, including the Group 1, Prix de Diane at Chantilly last time out. In truth, it was one of the weakest renewals of the French Oaks (RPR 109) this decade, but she is highly likely to improve further, although it is worth noting that she has yet to win on faster ground than G/S.
HERMOSA – has won both the British and Irish 1000 Guineas this season, in which she dominated her rivals from the front, but could only finish runner up in the Group 1, Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, when racing around a right handed bend and unable to secure an early lead. That said, her career best RPR of 117 sets the standard for this event and her pedigree suggests that the step up in trip from 1 mile should not present any problems from a stamina perspective.
MAQSAD – won the Listed, Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket over this distance by an easy 5 lengths, back in May, but failed to see out the 12 furlongs trip in the Oaks at Epsom, when finishing eighth (btn 10 lengths). She has been given a good break since that race and is likely to appreciate the drop in trip, but probably needs to improve another 6, or 7 lbs based on her best RPR of 111, if she is to win this event.
MEYDAAYIH – suffered a nightmare trip when finishing seventh (btn 6 ¼ lengths) in the Oaks at Epsom, but has since won a Group 2 event over 12 furlongs at Saint-Cloud in France. However, her best form (RPR 108) has been achieved over 12 furlongs on G/S ground, so there has to be some doubt as to whether she will appreciate the step back in trip, especially if the underfoot conditions are lively.
4.55 Galway - Galway Hurdle (Grade A Handicap) over 2 miles
A highly competitive Handicap Hurdle for which the last 10 winners have recorded an Adjusted RPR of at least 164, but unlike the Galway Plate only one winner during the past decade had previously recorded a top 3 finish in a Graded weight for age Hurdle.
I intend to use the following trends to produce my shortlist for this race.
Between 6 and 14 previous races over hurdles: 10/10
Aged between 5 and 7 years old: 9/10
Recorded an RPR over hurdles between 2 and 6 lbs higher than OR for this race within last 4 starts: 8/10
Recorded a pre race Adjusted RPR (based on last 5 starts) of at least 158: 8/10
I will provide the final shortlist in the comments section on Wednesday afternoon, once the final declarations have been published.
Part 2 of this edition of Rob’s Ramblings will be posted on Thursday morning, as normal.
In addition to the shortlists for the handicaps at Galway, I will also endeavour to add further STOP PRESS items in respect of horses that may be of interest, but would not normally make it into the main articles, in the comments section below.
I hope readers have enjoyed this edition of Rob’s Ramblings and please feel free to raise any comments, or questions via the comments section below, or alternatively I can be contacted at the following email address:
rob@maxbetracing.com
All the best.
Rob.
Both Galway and Goodwood racecourses have a similar characteristic as they are right handed tracks, which require races over 7 furlongs and 1 mile (around 8 ½ furlongs in the case of Galway) to be run around a right hand bend.
In the case of Goodwood, the bend provides a turn of around 90 degrees, whereas at Galway the participants have to negotiate a turn that is in excess of 180 degrees, which in both cases suggests that there should be a significant advantage for runners that are drawn close to the inside running rail (emerging from low numbered stalls).
In an attempt to quantify the impact of the draw over these race distances at each track, I have undertaken some analysis in respect of the winners of the handicap races during past festivals.
For ease of reference, I have split the field for each race into 3 sets based on the draw, namely low, middle and high.
Galway
The results of the draw analysis at Galway were somewhat interesting for race over both 7 furlongs and 8 ½ furlongs, as detailed below:
7 Furlongs
Low – 8 winners
Medium – 3 winners
High – 9 winners
8 ½ Furlongs
Low – 6 winners
Medium – 6 winners
High – 10 winners
Bearing in mind that low drawn runners should have an edge over those rivals emerging from high numbered stalls as they should find it easier to achieve a good position close to the inner running rail, the fact that the participants berthed in the highest numbered stalls achieved a better strike rate over both distances was a surprise.
I therefore felt the need to delve deeper to ascertain the reason for this apparent anomaly, so I also analysed the running styles of the winners of these races, which I split into 4 broad headings, namely, early leaders, prominent racers, mid division and held up.
The results of this further analysis for each race distance is as follows:
7 Furlongs
Led – 3
Prominent – 10
Mid Division – 3
Held Up – 4
8 ½ Furlongs
Led – 5
Prominent – 1
Mid Division – 12
Held Up 4
There appears to be 2 distinct patterns emerging, as the majority of winners over 7 furlongs were either early leaders, or prominent racers, whereas over the longer trip the preferred racing style is for horses to be held up either in midfield, or at the rear of the field.
It is difficult to be certain why these distinct patterns occur, but I do have one theory which is that the track is a stiff test due to the undulations and relatively stiff uphill finish (approximately 2 furlongs), which suggests that horses that normally have sufficient stamina to race prominently over 1 mile are comfortable with the drop back to 7 furlongs at Galway, but struggle to cope with both the stiff nature of the track and extended yardage when attempting the longer race distance, especially as the ground is often on the slow side.
Putting both sets of data together for each of the race distances, I have arrived at the following conclusions:
7 Furlongs
Early leaders and prominent racers can win irrespective of their starting stall position, providing they have sufficient early pace to achieve a good racing position before the end of the back straight.
Runners that need to be held up towards the rear of the field are suited by a high draw, which allows then to achieve their ideal position without getting involved in the scrummaging which occurs amongst the lower drawn runners who are jostling for position.
8 ½ Furlongs
Races over this distance can be won from the front, if the horse has a high draw (counter intuitive) and has sufficient early pace to cut across the field to secure a position on the inside rail, as these runners are not impacted by the scrummaging that occurs amongst the lower drawn participants.
However, it generally pays to focus on horses that tend to race in mid division, or at the rear of the field, in which case the draw has little impact on their chance of victory.
Goodwood
I have used the same methodology for assessing the impact of the draw at Goodwood over 7 furlongs and 1 mile.
7 Furlongs
Low – 9
Middle – 12
High – 6
8 Furlongs
Low – 7
Middle – 3
High – 3
Although the results for 8 furlongs are in line with my expectations, as logic suggests that low drawn runners should have an edge when running around a bend, the figures for the races over 7 furlongs were surprising as it appears that a middle draw is the best starting position.
I therefore felt that I had to reassess these results using slightly modified criteria, so I split the winners into just 2 sets, as follows:
7 Furlongs
Low – 16
High – 11
8 Furlongs
Low – 10
High – 3
The latest figures at least suggest that a stall position in the bottom half of the draw is beneficial, albeit the advantage is only moderate when looking at races over 7 furlongs.
I then analysed the running styles of the winners over both distances, as follows:
7 Furlongs
Led – 4
Prominent – 6
Mid Division – 9
Held Up – 6
8 Furlongs
Led – 2
Prominent – 3
Mid Division – 5
Held Up – 3
On the basis that Goodwood has the highest figure for horses suffering some form of interference during a race at around 33%, it again surprised me that the majority of winners over both distances either travelled in mid division, or were held up towards the rear of the field.
However, when amalgamating the low/high draw data with the racing style information the conclusions that can be drawn for both race distances, are fairly robust and complementary:
Horses that prefer to either lead early, or race prominently need to emerge from a stall in the lower half of the draw.
Horses that tend to race in mid division can win over either race distance from any stall, albeit their strike rate is slightly better from a low draw.
Horses that prefer to be held up at the rear of the field, need a high draw to have a reasonable chance of success.
I hope that the above analysis assists readers when assessing races over these distances during the week.
In addition, here is a link to a recent article in the Racing Post, which provides some useful information for punters in respect of the Galway Festival.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/mark-boylan-s-dos-and-don-ts-for-betting-at-the-galway-festival/391563
There is also a similar article providing some sound advice for punters intending to bet in races at Goodwood.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/graeme-rodways-dos-and-donts-for-betting-at-glorious-goodwood/391511
Racing Post Postdata Service
Perhaps I am becoming too demanding as I grow older, but I am frustrated by the lack of updates for this service when the official going is changed for a race meeting.
A good example occurred last Saturday, where the going at Ascot changed overnight from G/F to G/S, yet the Postdata information continued to show the analysis based on the faster underfoot conditions, although they did eventually update the going at the head of the table to G/S.
This meant that anyone viewing the table for the first time and/or not comparing the ticks in the boxes for suitability of the underfoot conditions against the past performances for the runners would have been completely mislead!!
Take the example of DOCUMENTING in the 3.00 race at Ascot, who was given one tick in the Going column when the ground was described as G/F, which is reasonable based on him recording his career best turf RPR of 91 on fast ground. However, he was still awarded the same tick for an RPR of just 70 on his only attempt on G/S in a race where he finished thirteenth (btn 8 ¼ lengths), of the 14 runners – this cannot be correct!!
In the same race, ANOTHER BATT was correctly awarded a question mark as he had never raced on G/F, but this remained in place when the going was changed to G/S, despite the fact that he had winning form on the slower surface!!
As many readers will be aware, Postdata information is key for my VALUE CALCULATOR analysis, on which I rely heavily when determining whether to bet, or not, so lack of updates completely compromises my ability to accurately assess value at the race meeting.
I fully appreciate that it is impossible for the Postdata information to be updated in the physical newspaper and it would be expecting too much for late changes in the going to be covered on line, but when the official going is changed overnight then surely the staff at the Racing Post, should be able to make the necessary amendments by mid morning to give users the most up to date position on which they can base their analysis of a race?
Access to Postdata is only available to users of the Racing Post who subscribe to the Members Club, so it is not as if we are not making a financial contribution towards the running of this service.
In the unlikely event that anyone reading this article is associated with the running of the Racing Post, I would request that they raise this matter with the management team, as surely the key goal of this media ‘giant’ is to provide subscribers with the most accurate data, where possible.
Niche Horse Tracker Update
The main weekly update will appear in Part 2, but here are the NHT qualifiers for races from Monday to Thursday, that are not included in the main preview, below:
Monday, 29 July
7.50 Windsor – ICE AGE – both the track and trip (6 furlongs) should be ideal for him and he is nicely treated off an OR of 97 based on his best performances of last year. However, his efforts this season have been rather hit or miss and the booking of the relatively inexperienced apprentice jockey, Georgia Dobie, who can claim 7 lbs is interesting. I have no strong opinions either way and my final decision as to whether to back him, will very much depend on whether he passes the VALUE CALCULATOR analysis.
Wednesday, 31 July
1.50 Goodwood – THE GRAND VISIR – is likely to relish every yard of this marathon 2 miles and 4 ½ furlongs race, but has shown all of his best form on a slow surface, so will probably need some cut in the ground.
Galway and Goodwood Preview (Tuesday to Thursday)
Tuesday, 30 July
3.00 Goodwood - Lennox Stakes (Group 2) for 3yos and older over 7 furlongs
In the absence of a Group 1 race in the UK over this specialist distance, this event is one of the most prestigious for horses over 7 furlongs, with the winner normally having to record an RPR in excess of 116.
This appears to be a fairly open renewal, for which I have chosen the following shortlist:
DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT – NHT representative who only enters calculations if the heavens open and the ground is described as Soft, or slower, as he has to find improvement from somewhere to be competitive in this event, especially as has shown his best form later in the season. However, he could sneak a place at huge odds, if underfoot conditions are in his favour, as they will not suit some of his rivals.
FLAMING SPEAR – at first glance he appears to be an unlikely candidate, as he has never won above Class 2 handicap level and will be making his seasonal debut. However, he recorded his career best RPR of 116 over this course and distance last August, when beating no other than CAPE BYRON.
HEY GAMAN – finished runner up last time out in the Group 2, Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh and has claims based on his career best RPR of 116. However, he has yet to win in 7 attempts above Group 3 level and is likely to need to improve again to win this event.
SIR DANCEALOT – won this race last year, together with the Group 2, Hungerford Stakes at Newbury, but subsequently could only finish fifth (btn 2 ¼ lengths) behind ONE MASTER in the Group 1, Prix de la Foret at Longchamp in October. He has yet to hit form this season, but a return to his best should see him go close.
ZAAKI – is a typical Sir Michael Stoute trained 4yo, who has improved this season with 3 strong performances over 1 mile and only just failed when runner up (btn a nose) by the ill fated BEAT THE BANK in the Group 2, Summer Mile at Ascot, last time. However, his best form is over further, so this step back in trip may not be ideal.
SPACE TRAVELLER – is the only 3yo in the shortlist, but has solid claims based on a vastly improved performance last time, when winning the Group 3, Jersey Stakes over 7 furlongs at Royal Ascot. He improved his best RPR by 11 lbs on that occasion, but will probably need to better that figure by a few lbs to win this race.
3.35 Goodwood - Goodwood Cup (Group 1) for 3yos and older over 2 miles
Although this race was only promoted from Group 2 to the highest level in 2017, it has always been one of the most prestigious events for stayers which normally requires the winner to record an RPR of 115, or greater, although STRADIVARIUS appears to have raised the bar with figures of 118 and 121, since it became a Group 1 race.
Based on historic form, there are just 3 shortlisted candidates.
CROSS COUNTER – recorded a career best RPR of 119 when victorious in the Group 3, Gordon Stakes over 12 furlongs at this meeting last year, finishing 4 ½ lengths ahead of DEE EX BEE and subsequently went on to win both the Melbourne Cup and Group 2, Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan. He was returning from a fairly lengthy break, when finishing fourth (btn 1 ¾ lengths) in the Gold Cup and Royal Ascot and may be capable of further improvement on the likely faster ground, as he was staying on well, albeit he had too much to make up on the leaders.
DEE EX BEE – has improved for the step up in distance to staying trips this season and recorded a joint career best RPR of 119 when finishing runner up (btn 1 length) in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.
He will almost certainly attempt to lead from the early stages in this race, so connections will be keen for him to set a searching gallop over this shorter trip on the likely faster ground, as he was easily outgunned by the winner in the closing stages that day.
STRADIVARIUS – has won the last 2 renewals of this race and was victorious in his second consecutive Ascot Gold Cup last time, where he comfortably beat his 2 main rivals for this event.
The likely faster ground should improve his chance of winning and although his career best RPR of 121 only gives him 2 lbs in hand of CROSS COUNTER and DEE EX BEE, he often gives the impression that he would be capable of recording a bigger figure, if pressed to do so.
Wednesday, 31 July
3.35 Goodwood - Sussex Stakes (Group 1) for 3yos and older over 1 mile
During the period 2009 to 2013, this race was considered to be the Premier event for milers, as it required the winner to record an RPR at least 129, however those halcyon days appear to be long gone, as the last 5 renewals have produced Winning RPRs between 118 and 124 with the average figure being 122.
In view of the lack of strength in depth amongst the milers this year, I doubt that the winner will need to record a figure in excess of 124.
Although there are only 9 entries at the 5 day stage, it is not easy to be confident regarding the chances of any of the 4 shortlist qualifiers:
LORD GLITTERS – finally got off the mark at the highest level last time out when winning the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, in which he recorded a career best RPR of 121. However, that was a substandard renewal of the event and he could only finish third in this race last season, against what were probably weaker rivals than he faces this time.
ZABEEL PRINCE – lightly raced 6yo who has won half of his 12 career starts, including the Group 1, Prix d’Ispahan over 9 furlongs at Longchamp in May. He has subsequently disappointed in two Group 1 events over 10 furlongs and is likely to appreciate the drop in trip to 1 mile, although his career best RPR of 120, suggests that he will probably need to find some improvement to win this race.
PHOENIX OF SPAIN – has solid claims based on his career best RPR of 120 which he earned when winning the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh on his seasonal debut, where he finished 3 lengths clear of TOO DARN HOT. However, he was allowed an uncontested lead that day on a track that favours front runners and was unable to confirm the form in his subsequent start at Royal Ascot, when finishing sixth (btn 3 ¾ lengths) behind CIRCUS MAXIMUS.
TOO DARN HOT – sets the standard for his rivals based on his career best RPR of 125, which he has achieved twice over 7 furlongs, including last time out in the Group 1, Prix Jean Pratt at Deauville. However, he has finished behind both PHOENIX OF SPAIN (Irish 2000 Guineas) and CIRCUS MAXIMUS (St James’s Palace Stakes) in his 2 starts over 1 mile and the suspicion is that he is more of a speed horse than a stayer. That said, the easy mile at Goodwood, probably provides him with his best opportunity to notch a Group 1 victory at this distance, especially if the underfoot conditions are quick.
7.20 Galway - Galway Plate (Grade A Handicap Chase) over 2 miles and 6 ½ furlongs
This is one of the most competitive handicap chases held in Ireland, in which the winner normally records an Adjusted RPR of at least 169 and it is rare for the winner not to have already recorded a top 3 finish in a Graded weight for age race over fences.
I will deploy the following trends to whittle down the current entries to produce a more manageable shortlist:
Recorded an RPR at least 5 lbs higher than OR for race within last 5 starts over fences: 9/10
Previously won in a Chase over 2m3f to 2m6f: 9/10
Recorded a pre race Adjusted RPR (based on last 5 starts) of at least 161: 8/10
I will share the final shortlist in the comments section below during Tuesday afternoon, after the final declarations have been published.
Readers who wish to consider an alternative approach for this race may find the following Racing Post article of interest.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/brian-sheerin-on-how-to-pick-the-winner-of-the-galway-plate/391955
Thursday, 1 August
3.35 Goodwood - Nassau Stakes (Group 1) for 3yo and older Fillies and mares over 1 mile and 2 furlongs
Another Group 1 race where the level of performance required by the winner has reduced in recent years, with an RPR of 116 has been good enough to win 4 of the last 6 renewals.
It is also worth noting that 6 of the last 7 winners were members of the classic generation.
In light of the recent near domination of 3yo fillies in this race, it is no real surprise that my shortlist of 5 candidates contains just a single older protagonist.
RAWDAA – is the sole older filly to make the shortlist and has yet to win in Pattern company. However, she has only been beaten by just a neck in both of her latest starts in Group 2 events at York and Royal Ascot. This will only be her seventh start on turf, so there is every chance she may be able to produce further improvement, whilst her career best RPR of 116 may be good enough for victory.
CHANNEL – has only raced 4 times to date, winning her last 3 starts, including the Group 1, Prix de Diane at Chantilly last time out. In truth, it was one of the weakest renewals of the French Oaks (RPR 109) this decade, but she is highly likely to improve further, although it is worth noting that she has yet to win on faster ground than G/S.
HERMOSA – has won both the British and Irish 1000 Guineas this season, in which she dominated her rivals from the front, but could only finish runner up in the Group 1, Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, when racing around a right handed bend and unable to secure an early lead. That said, her career best RPR of 117 sets the standard for this event and her pedigree suggests that the step up in trip from 1 mile should not present any problems from a stamina perspective.
MAQSAD – won the Listed, Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket over this distance by an easy 5 lengths, back in May, but failed to see out the 12 furlongs trip in the Oaks at Epsom, when finishing eighth (btn 10 lengths). She has been given a good break since that race and is likely to appreciate the drop in trip, but probably needs to improve another 6, or 7 lbs based on her best RPR of 111, if she is to win this event.
MEYDAAYIH – suffered a nightmare trip when finishing seventh (btn 6 ¼ lengths) in the Oaks at Epsom, but has since won a Group 2 event over 12 furlongs at Saint-Cloud in France. However, her best form (RPR 108) has been achieved over 12 furlongs on G/S ground, so there has to be some doubt as to whether she will appreciate the step back in trip, especially if the underfoot conditions are lively.
4.55 Galway - Galway Hurdle (Grade A Handicap) over 2 miles
A highly competitive Handicap Hurdle for which the last 10 winners have recorded an Adjusted RPR of at least 164, but unlike the Galway Plate only one winner during the past decade had previously recorded a top 3 finish in a Graded weight for age Hurdle.
I intend to use the following trends to produce my shortlist for this race.
Between 6 and 14 previous races over hurdles: 10/10
Aged between 5 and 7 years old: 9/10
Recorded an RPR over hurdles between 2 and 6 lbs higher than OR for this race within last 4 starts: 8/10
Recorded a pre race Adjusted RPR (based on last 5 starts) of at least 158: 8/10
I will provide the final shortlist in the comments section on Wednesday afternoon, once the final declarations have been published.
Part 2 of this edition of Rob’s Ramblings will be posted on Thursday morning, as normal.
In addition to the shortlists for the handicaps at Galway, I will also endeavour to add further STOP PRESS items in respect of horses that may be of interest, but would not normally make it into the main articles, in the comments section below.
I hope readers have enjoyed this edition of Rob’s Ramblings and please feel free to raise any comments, or questions via the comments section below, or alternatively I can be contacted at the following email address:
rob@maxbetracing.com
All the best.
Rob.
RSS Feed
